Different Opinion Polls about Pakistan General Elections 2013

Opinion Polls

Various polls have been conducted by different organizations, all of which show inconsistencies and different results.

“	"Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to play important role in next government."	”
—Najam Sethi, 2013

Based on figures being quoted in newspapers and articles, Pakistan Muslim League (N) looks set to get at least 125 seats general seats which means that by taking on allies in the form of 10 Fata seats and close to 12 seats from the KPK, PML-N would have the numbers to form a central government single handedly. At provincial levels, Punjab is locked up, in KPK PML-N can take the JUI-F on board and form a coalition while Balochistan is nearly always independents who ally with the Federal Government.

In March 2013, a survey by Heinrich Böll Foundation showed that 29 per cent of the people surveyed would support the Pakistan Peoples Party, the highest number for any political party surveyed by the company. Nearly 25 per cent said they would support the main opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by former Prime MinisterNawaz Sharif. Another 20 per cent supported the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led by former cricketer Imran Khan.

According to a survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan and PILDAT the Pakistan Muslim League (N) tops the list on voting intention score in Punjab, followed by the PTI and the PPP respectively. The February 2013 political forecast is based on a nationwide poll of approximately 9660 voters in 300 villages and urban localities. The voting intention score of PML-N stands at 63% in North and Central Punjab, 69% in Western Punjab and 49% in Southern Punjab, shows the survey. According to the consolidated findings of two nationwide polls on voting intentions, conducted by IRI and Gallup Pakistan respectively during past three months, the front runner in Pakistan’s elections scheduled in mid 2013 is the PML-N. The PTI, according to the survey, is making deep inroads in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa where it has surpassed every other player by a 30 per cent score.

“	"Pakistan Peoples Party to emerge victorious on basis of performance."	”
—Qamar Zaman Kaira, 2013

In January 2013, an online poll conducted by Public Judgement showed that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf would win 66.1% of the total seats with PML-N coming in second place with 29.3% of seats. This would translate as PTI winning an outright majority of 225 seats in parliament. The online poll took place over 16 days and a total of 17,013 people participated in the poll.

PTI Chairman Imran Khan acknowledges sharp slide in his party’s popularity but attributes it to the party’s preoccupation with a gigantic task of intra-party elections. It took about 10 months during which the PTI almost suspended its activities. Imran is confident that the PTI will rebound soon for which a series of rallies has been planned beginning with Peshawar on March 10 on conclusion of elections for the Khyber Pakhtunkhawa (KP). On March 23, a massive rally is planned in Lahore which will also be attended by about 80,000 elected members at union council level across the country.

Senior Pakistani Political analyst Najam Sethi said, Nawaz Sharif held public meetings and rallies in every nook and corner of the country while Shahbaz Sharif completed development projects in Punjab which attracted politicians from the other parties. Sethi said that the three percent raise in the popularity graph of the Pakistan People’s Party was made possible due to Asif Ali Zardari’s efforts who gathered many such politicians as used to oppose him. He said the popularity of both the parties increased due to the revival of the traditional politics and the same was the cause of decrease in popularity of unorthodox politicians like Imran Khan. However, Imran Khan’s next public meetings would help him a lot, Sethi predicted, saying that the PTI leader’s graph would go up after public rallies in Lahore and Peshawar and the party would play an important role in formation of the next government.

Support based on Generation gap

The survey’s findings indicate that the PTI’s support is derived from all age groups – 22.9 per cent of those between 18 to 35 years, 18.6 per cent of those between 36 to 50 years, 18.4 per cent of those between 51 to 70 years and 7.7 of those above 70 years support the PTI, dispelling the notion that its vote bank is rooted in the younger generation. The highest proportion of those aged between 36 to 50 years (32.5 per cent) indicate a preference for the PPP. Similarly, 46.2 per cent of those aged over 70 expressed a preference for the PMLN. Compared with respondents’ voting histories, the PMLN’s vote bank appears to have remained stagnant while the PPP’s seems to have declined significantly. It appears that the PTI has a stronger urban base, while a higher proportion of rural respondents indicated that they would vote for either the PPP or the PMLN in the upcoming elections.

The ethnic vote

Predictably, the highest level of support for the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party was pledged by Sindhi people, 55 per cent of whom said that they would vote for the PPP in the impending elections. This was followed by Seraiki-speakers at 46 per cent. Forty-four per cent of Hindko-speakers said that they intended to vote for the Pakistan Muslim League (N), closely followed by Punjabi people at 43 per cent. The same proportion of Hindko-speakers – 44 per cent – also expressed an intention to vote for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, indicating a close contest between the two parties (PMLN and PTI) within that particular demographic. It is worth noting that while 34 per cent of Pakhtuns stated that they would vote for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, only 11 per cent expressed the same vis a vis the Awami National Party (ANP). 47 per cent of Baloch said that they would vote for theBalochistan National Party.

Support based on Household income

On average, approximately a third of those earning up to 30,000 rupees each month indicated a preference for the Pakistan Peoples Party whereas, among those earning more than 30,000 rupees, support for the party dropped to 10.8 percent. This is in keeping with the party’s traditional pro-poor image. No such trend could be determined for the Pakistan Muslim League (N), whose level of support remained similar across all income levels. Those earning in excess of 250,000 rupees each month (the highest identified income bracket in the survey) expressed the maximum intention to vote for either the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) or the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, at 33 per cent each. While this figure may appear anomalistic in the MQM’s case – support for the party within the second highest income bracket (those earning between 100,000 and 250,000 rupees each month) was only four per cent – it was possible to identify a rough direct trend between level of income and support for the PTI. In general, it appeared that support for smaller parties declined with increasing levels of income.